A volatile outlook for Australia’s coal exports

Wed 29 April, 2020

Australian thermal coal exports were down 21 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 and there are signs that this will be a continuing trend.

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In the wake of a global pandemic, seaborne thermal coal prices hit new lows in April 2020 as oil prices plunged into negative territory for the first time in history. Weaker demand sentiment, together with a slow supply response from key coal exporters has created a severe oversupply and dragged down prices across all coal types.
With over half of global seaborne thermal coal operations operating at a loss, production cuts are much needed to stabilise prices as we head into this unprecedented period.

China import ban:
China’s embargo on Australian coal imports has not been as severe as China hoped with cargoes being redirected to other demand centres.

South Korea and India remain glimmers of hope:
Demand from South Korea and India rose by a combined total of 1.1Mt to 2.5Mt.

Weaker power demand in Japan:
Despite milder weather, continuing economic restrictions to control the spread of Covid-19 has limited demand from Japan.

Supply disruptions from Newcastle:
Severe storms disrupted exports from the port of Newcastle with a shiploader damaged.

Thermal Coal

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